Alkimiya: Trading Blockchain Fundamentals

Did you miss both the Circle IPO trade and the Plasma ICO deposit but still want to invest in stablecoins? Well on June 23, 2025, Alkimiya announced a new peer-to-peer market for traders to be able to bet on what the future supply of USDC will be, allowing traders for the first time to long or short demand for USDC as a proxy for the growth of Circle.

How Alkimiya Works

Alkimiya works as a peer-to-peer trading platform that aggregates traders to create liquidity for specific markets. Traders first select the market they want to trade, whether that is Base’s weekly revenue (“Onchain Revenue”), Bitcoin’s block space and weekly average fee rate (“Blockspace”), or Circle USDC’s total supply (“Stablecoin Metrics”).

If you’re looking to bet on the total supply of USDC, you can click on Stablecoin Metrics and the current market which will show the start and end date, the current supply of USDC, total trading volume for that market, and any significant events that may affect the supply of USDC.

After selecting the market, traders are able to either place a market order by longing or shorting the other side of existing positions:

Traders can also place a limit order in the hopes that another trader will come to take the other side of the order:

Once traders place a trade, Alkimiya’s Forecast model have a preset “Floor” and “Cap” value for the metric being traded, which in this case is the lowest and highest value that the supply of USDC can be traded for on this market. This limit is implemented to protect users against unexpected volatile spikes.

In the scenario above, the trade is longing the supply of USDC, believing that it will go above 62.5bn by June 29, 2025, as it currently sits at 61.91bn. With a floor of 58.5bn and a cap of 63.5bn, the maximum payout for the trade above is 500k, calculated by multiplying 100k (Trade Size) and 5 (Cap - Floor). However, that’s only referring to the maximum payout. Typical payouts work continuously between the trade’s initial entry point and the cap (if it’s a long). In this case, if USDC supply goes to 63bn, this trade’s profit will earn a proportional profit between the entry at 62.5bn and the cap at 63.5bn.

Once the trade deadline arrives, the trade is resolved using either Alkimiya’s in-house oracle service, Alkimiya Prime, for its Onchain Revenue and Blockspace markets, or the Circle API for its Stablecoin Metrics market.

Alkimiya Protocol

Alkimiya currently has three markets in which users can trade in, Onchain Revenue, Stablecoin Metrics, and Blockspace. Currently, each of these markets only maintain one specific market, Base’s weekly revenue, Bitcoin’s block space and weekly average fee rate, and Circle USDC’s total supply, respectively.

However, looking ahead, Alkimiya is aiming to build out a number of different markets tracking on-chain fundamentals, expanding upon Stablecoin Metrics with markets like USDC/USDT Total Supply Ratio, USDe/USDC Total Supply Ratio, and USDC on Solana/USDC on EVM Total Supply Ratio. Alkimiya is also looking to expand into real world metrics where users will be able to trade on things like U.S. CPI Numbers, ETF Net Flows, and BTC/Gold Ratio.

Additionally, Alkimiya is looking to launch LP vaults. Alkimiya LP vaults will generate a significant amount of trading liquidity for Alkimiya and create a better experience for traders on the platform while also giving liquidity providers the opportunity to earn fees generated from trading activity on the platform. I imagine this may function similarly to Hyperliquid’s HLP vault, providing liquidity to the platform by taking the other side of many traders, thus earning fees and profiting from the losses of traders using the platform. However, without further details, this is mere speculation.

Potential Risks

Alkimiya is an extremely early stage protocol with few active users trading on its platform. As a result, its markets remain relatively illiquid without allowing many users to size into significant positions. For example, the market for USDC supply from June 23 to June 29 currently has only 766.60 USDC worth of volume. Even the previous market from June 16 to June 22 only had 189.17k USDC worth of total trading volume which is minuscule compared to other significant trading and betting platforms like Polymarket and Hyperliquid. This introduces a chicken or egg problem where Alkimiya needs liquidity to attract traders while it also needs traders to attract additional liquidity. If Alkimiya is unable to market itself and jumpstart liquidity, which I think is one of the toughest tasks as a startup, it will remain dead in the water.

Another aspect of Alkimya that introduces some risk is the fact that Alkimiya built its own oracle system, Alkimiya Prime. Few details are provided except that it indexes raw in-house onchain data to provide the data and results for the Onchain Revenue and Blockspace markets. Alkimiya claims that its oracles are fully audited but with only an outdated audit report by Zellic on June 14, 2024 that has been publicly posted, it’s unclear who has audited Alkimiya Prime.

Conclusion

Although I think that Alkimiya is building a really interesting market around trading blockchain fundamentals, the lack of traders, market makers, and liquidity currently make it a difficult place to participate in any of its markets. One shining light however is that Alkimiya has not currently launched a token so potential for an airdrop could attract users to trade on its platform to generate volume and create the liquidity that larger trades are looking for. As of May 8, 2025, Alkimiya has only launched season one of a social initiative points program called the Fourier Program meant to “reward passionate users and influential supporters” of Alkimiya. Without any further details about the social points program, I think Alkimiya is an interesting protocol not only to keep an eye on but potentially to trade on if liquidity picks up. Who knows, what if it’s the next Hyperliquid?